From mid to prime: The Metro Manila condo climb

Property developers have adopted a more measured and strategic approach to launches both within and outside Metro Manila, capitalizing on a relatively liquid consumer base while proactively positioning themselves to capture capital value appreciation in emerging growth corridors.

However, the buildup of unsold inventory in the mid-income segment (P3.6 million to P12 million per unit) is compelling many developers to recalibrate their product mix. This has accelerated a shift toward high-end, luxury, and ultra-luxury developments.

As of end-Q1 2026, these premium segments—priced at P20 million and above—accounted for only 4 percent of the remaining ready-for-occupancy (RFO) inventory in Metro Manila.

Colliers Philippines believes that the take-up for luxury residential projects will likely remain resilient, supported by the steady influx of expatriates, a recovery in international visitor arrivals, and sustained interest from affluent domestic buyers.

In this segment, purchasing decisions are increasingly driven not just by location, but by the quality of offerings, ranging from curated lifestyle amenities and high-touch concierge services to long-term capital appreciation potential.

Looking beyond 2026, a pipeline of luxury and ultra -luxury developments is scheduled for completion in key central business districts. These projects are strategically located near premium office towers and are complemented by high-end retail centers, wellness facilities, sky gardens, and other best-in-class amenities.

This convergence of luxury residential, commercial, and lifestyle components is expected to further reinforce the attractiveness of CBDs as preferred live-work-play environments for high-net-worth individuals.

Breaking the price barrier

Recent residential launches by major developers have increasingly targeted the affluent segment.

In 2025, approximately 20 percent of newly launched units were positioned within the upscale to ultra-luxury categories, with price points starting at P12 million.

Colliers expects the luxury and ultra-luxury segments to remain relatively resilient despite elevated interest and mortgage rates. Affluent buyers continue to view these assets as viable investment vehicles, underpinned by strong capital appreciation potential and their effectiveness as a hedge against inflation.

Furthermore, the continued enhancement of Metro Manila’s infrastructure backbone is likely to reinforce upward pressure on residential property values. In particular, luxury and ultra-luxury developments located in well-connected corridors are expected to benefit the most.

Redefining premium residences

Colliers Philippines believes that property firms should seize the opportunity provided by the growing popularity of joint venture (JV) residential projects across Metro Manila by firming up partnerships with foreign developers and launching luxury and ultra luxury projects.

Property firms should emphasize the JV projects’ upscale amenities, integrated development features, and strong potential for capital appreciation, which are important considerations for a discerning and affluent market.

Colliers Philippines believes that the demand for luxury and even ultra-luxury units will likely remain resilient.

In our view, developers should prepare to tap the demand for this segment.

With prices breaching P500,000 per sqm and total contract prices exceeding P100 million per unit, the market is set to become even more discerning. Investors will increasingly look for innovative amenities, stronger connectivity to masterplanned communities, open spaces, health facilities, high-quality office towers, and topnotch concierge services.

Structural shift

Overall, Metro Manila’s residential market is undergoing a structural shift, with developers increasingly prioritizing higher-value segments to help investors better navigate cost pressures and evolving demand dynamics.

The sustained pivot toward luxury and ultra-luxury offerings reflects both a strategic response to mid-market inventory challenges and a recognition of the segment’s long-term investment appeal.

Colliers Philippines believes that supported by infrastructure upgrades, rising land values, and a more discerning buyer base, the higher-value vertical developments are poised to drive value creation across the more established business hubs.